Edmundo left: Somber thoughts on Venezuela's Mission Impossible
It was yet another dark day for Venezuelans in and out of the country as we learned that Edmundo Gonzalez, president-elect, fled to Madrid after dictator Nicolas Maduro demanded his imprisonment.
Undoubtedly, this is a moral hit for those of us anxiously awaiting a democratic resolution to the Venezuelan tragedy.
The reality, though, is that we knew going to elections in Venezuela under the circumstances (aka a narco-dictatorship) was a long shot. But it was the only path forward that the international community supports. And the international community is all the opposition has.
The US government freed chavista drug traffickers (Maduro’s nephews) and money launderers (Alex Saab, accused of stealing billions from the Venezuelan state) in exchange of free elections. Now, however they abandon Maria Corina Machado and Edmundo Gonzalez as they face Maduro’s corrupt courts and judges. I don’t blame MCM or Gonzalez. They did all they could institutionally do and they don’t have guns.
Can we blame the US? To an extent - In today’s world, the US cannot do more than issue statements or sanction. Unlike Maduro’s allies (Russia, Iran, China), the US has to follow international rule and law.
But they do have some blame, as they forced the opposition into elections with a bravado, with Biden officials behind closed doors claiming they had fixed the Venezuela problem by negotiating with the kidnappers.
Anyone who has followed the chavista regime for years could have told you the kidnapper was not gonna let go of the victim. It is what it is.
Edmundo had two choices, as every other major chavista opponent has had over the last 20 years: prison or exile. Maybe if he had chosen prison, Venezuelans would have gone out to protest en masse, and Maduro would’ve killed more protesters. That has happened before, like with Leopoldo Lopez. But this has never gotten Venezuela closer to freedom. Instead, prison time has burned former heroes like Lopez, who are forced to negotiate and stain their image to survive and eventually escape prison.
Moreover, the protests eventually cool off because, again, protesters, like opposition leaders, have no guns.
Now many have criticized Edmundo for staying quiet following his electoral wins. One of the best things the opposition did this time around is have the figure of Edmundo and making sure he remained clean of any possible accusation by the regime. (Incitement of violence, etc). The regime charged him anyway. But I think he hasn’t said much because his role is merely the institutional one. The rest of the fight goes to Maria Corina Machado, military, and Venezuelans. We’re still missing the military sadly.
Still, the true opposition leader, MCM, is still to make her final moves. She has yet refrained from calling people to the streets. She hasn’t done it yet because she knows enough Venezuelans have already died in protests, and in vain. Whether she uses her political capital for one more protest movement remains to be seen. If she does, she will surely be forced to choose between prison and exile, too.
Sadly, in the end, Venezuela is another example of a modern regime that’s extremely hard to overthrow because they don’t play by the rules. They kill, jail and exile. Democratic countries that support the opposition can merely issue statements and sanction. The two sides are playing in under completely different rules.
One would at least expect that now the First World Dialoguing Think Tanks for Venezuela would at least remove themselves from the conversation and stop promoting elections. This will never happen because it’s how they make money.
In the past they’ve blamed opposition leaders for daring call for protests after frauds. But Edmundo hasn’t said a word. He just dared win the election. Who will they blame now?
This was great! Love your work as always- and it’s terrifying how stuck it seems. It definitely is an impossible feeling fight and seems like democracy defenders fleeing is the only option- those who have been imprisoned get the torture complications and resentful people. Anne Applebaum wrote about the campaign against Leopoldo Lopez as a unique Venezuelan repression tactic other autocracies copied, it got stronger after Leopoldo said “autocrats work in a network- and democracies have no tools to fight back” It breaks my heart to see how people like Leopoldo Lopez and Juan Guaido are still fighting (and the torture Lopez endured was horrific, and very documented publically) and it feels so hopeless- like the dictator has a way of making people resentful against those on the frontlines and turning people against them after a year- when this is a fight that can take decades and they need many people involved. It almost seems like “why be imprisoned for your beliefs? Maduro will turn the people against you in a few years” and that he still holds hope. I wish I had hope like that, they are all heroes to me- each one. I believe it was Lopez revealed how Iran, Russia, China, Cuba all work together to keep autocrats in power forever— because of this all the regimes want him silenced (and I’m like “if he is irrelevant, why are you trying to silence him?”) I was always taught that hardwork will pay off, and I hope someday dissidents globally can unify (and people will appreciate sacrifices of all Venezuelan freedom fighters)
Especially those who faced the dungeons like Leopoldo and anybody who confronted the regime- the dictators want them to just quit and sacrifice not to mean anything, why take a stand if people will hate you?
Thanks so much for this excellent commentary. I guess I disagree with the idea that pushing toward an “open” (as much as it could have been) election was obviously a bad decision ahead of time. And if it was, then what was the alternative? Continued “maximum pressure” of sanctions that hadn’t done anything up to this point? Another Guaidó? Holding the 28 July elections made abundantly clear to everyone (including a ton of current and former Chavistas) around the globe what the state of play is, and that Maduro can no longer claim any semblance of democratic legitimacy, even with leftist allies like Chile, Brazil, and Colombia. Like you articulate extremely well, the deck is stacked against a change in government based on the result of the election. Unfortunately at this point only bad options exist. I would just like to hear more alternatives from folks who lampoon the strategy of the US / international community as naive.